E-commerce is back
Having reached the symbolic threshold of 5% of retail business in the USA, B2C e commerce is set to move from marginal to mainstream. And since it is two or three times cheaper to operate than conventional trade, e commerce will become a fundamental component of companies' profitability. As a result, companies that have spent the past few years taking their place and acquiring vital experience will enjoy a decisive competitive edge. Those who have been predicting the failure of e commerce could look as ridiculous, or even more so, than those who claimed it would shut down all our suburban malls.
Record labels going cheap!
With file-sharing a daily activity for internet users of all ages, and computer companies showing that they can make a better job of selling music than record companies, the music industry will realize the true extent of the disaster that awaits it. The sharp revenue falls of the last few years are only a foretaste of the price to pay for not being prepared to meet customer expectations. While Apple, Microsoft, Dell and Wal-Mart duke it out for the on-line music sales market, record labels will sell for a fraction of their value of just a few years ago. That is, if they are not forced to fold as they are deserted by artists who realize that their future lies elsewhere, and by customers who object to being called thieves by those who have for so long abused the goose that laid the golden eggs.
Cinema faces the music
Movie-sharing over the internet will start to make headlines in the same way that music-sharing has done in recent years. But the film industry seems set to adapt and take advantage of the changes in its market. The many experiments with pay-per-view movies and the agreements that various players have reached with P2P companies to handle their distribution in new markets suggest that the industry is poised to discover new business models that will save it from the calamity that is befalling the record industry - even if this happens at the expense of video rental clubs, of which the industry will have less and less need to reach consumers.
But we've known for a long time that the internet has no mercy for middlemen without added value.
Wi-Fi takes control of home entertainment
The integration of Wi-Fi into home audio and video equipment will break down the barriers between the internet and family entertainment. Send your mp3 compilation to the stereo; watch the latest film downloaded from the net in your home movie theatre; record an extract from a TV show on your computer for emailing to a friend; access all the world's recipes from your own kitchen with a portable computer and Google; change the photo on your bedside table without having to connect a single wire and without having to pay a monthly subscription. The long-heralded convergence of technology is finally happening and neither Bell, Videotron nor Microsoft are in control of it.
TV's turn
Long considered as immune, television will start to feel the sharp bite of the internet. The slump in the very lucrative 18-35 year old male audience in the US (even though it is masked by the passing phenomenon of reality TV) is only a foretaste of the coming tsunami wave that will sweep away advertising revenue in the next few years. The few networks and programs that have integrated the web into their production process will have the edge in the search for a solution which, as with the print media, will not necessarily be the sole province of the biggest or those with the deepest pockets.
The political power of the internet?
While the net is emerging as the biggest player in the American electoral campaign, with every passing day Canadian political parties are showing more clearly that they do not represent the future of our society: the gulf between them and the public is widening daily.
Although it is by no means certain that the population of Québec is ready for the participatory democracy that web can offer, most Quebecers expect their leaders to be at least as wired as they are - which is far from the case, as Paul Martin has proved with his dismal blog.
Personal movie-making debuts
The combination of high bandwidth, digital videocams and free editing tools will spawn a host of budding film makers who will put their work, from wedding videos to fiction scenarios, on line. Even though many of their efforts will spread no further than family and workmates, some of these productions will take the industry by surprise, as has happened with personal pages and blogs.
And end to red herrings
Is the internet a gimmick with no future, or will it spell the end of all stores and media? Will it be free, or will we have to pay? A commercial or a community medium? Is it the Big Brother we all feared, or will it break the grip of totalitarian states? Does it educate children, or pervert them? Is it God or Satan? 2004 will show that all these questions are baseless. The net is a powerful, universal tool and at the same time it is just that - a tool, whose results depend on those that use it and the effort they make to master it.
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