2003 Trend Forecasts and Outcomes

1. Web journals make the headlines.
   Previously limited to journalists and the technology insiders, these hundreds of thousands of personal Web journals ("weblogs" or "blogs") will begin to come out from the shadows this year and attract impressive audiences. Whether over a Canadian politician resigning due to a blog or courses given in Quebec universities, the Quebec mass-media will certainly get caught up in the YAWN (Yet Another Weblogs Newsarticle) effect and focus the spotlight on the third Internet social phenomenon after e-mail and the Web. Even though such widespread use will delight the pioneers, they will no doubt be less thrilled by the changes occurring in its wake.
   
   Outcome: We must admit we were completely mistaken. Blogs have become a major social phenomenon, yet the Quebec mass media seems blind to it. During the war in Irak, blogs became the main source of uncensored information. Think of the famous Dear Raed from Irak, which gave real time coverage of the American invasion, and which continues to show just how pre- and post-Saddam television can be equally biased; or for that matter, the BBC journalists' blogs, which were always 12 to 48 hours ahead of news that has been reworked by editors for publishing. And as blogs multiplied, Google laid its hands on one of the main technology developers in the field. In the political arena, while Paul Martin came across looking foolish trying to take advantage of the phenomenon without understanding it, Howard Dean was able to use this decentralized means of communication to get a stranglehold on the Democratic presidential nomination; he thus made a mockery of all the signs supposedly pointing to his failure. In spite of all this, the Quebec press is largely silent on the matter, with the exception of specialists such as Michel Dumais of Le Devoir and Bruno G. of Radio-Canada who both maintain their own weblogs.
2. The office makes room for Linux.
   After having conquered sixty-six and twenty-seven percent of the Internet and corporate server markets respectively, the open-source operating system has finally attained the maturity allowing it to reside on personal computers. It will still take several years before most office workers use Linux, mostly because of the resistance to change on the part of both users and IT managers. But this year will definitely see the process begin, especially in sectors that have limited budgets-SMB's, the education milieu, community organizations, developing countries, etc.
   
   Outcome: At the same time that Microsoft was found to be using Linux to protect its servers, the company's new pricing policy hastened the confirmation of our prediction. One after the other, the governments of Israel, Denmark, Sweden, China, Korea, Vietnam, Peru, South Africa and Brazil chose Linux over Microsoft to run their office computers. This decision by different countries was added to that of many administrations, large cities and states that had taken the same route, including in the US and even the Pentagon. For its part, the World Information Society Summit acknowledged the importance of open source software for the modernization of developing countries, and the German government at the same time published a guide for transition from Windows to Linux.
3. Say goodbye to all those wires.
   Though many had been counting on Bluetooth to develop a wireless connection offering, once again it was an open source technology that took the lead, introducing the IEEE 802.11 WiFi standard. A reduction in prices, an acceptable improvement in security, and the appearance of ultra-fast versions (802.11b at 22Mb/s and 802.11a at 54Mb/s) will all make 2003 the year of wireless, as much in households as in businesses, even if the latter are slower in making the switch. The disappearance of the wired connection will bring about a real revolution, to wit that of everywhere Internet and information access, at the same time ending once and for all the 1X and 3G dreams of cell phone marketers.
   
   Outcome: Our forecast was borne out by a two hundred and fourteen percent increase in the WiFi residential market and a jump from a few hundred to 71 500 public access points ("hot spots"). The first signs of a sea change in usage comes in the form of the marriage of telephony and WiFi (combining VoIP, voice over Internet, with wireless broadband). This allows for setting up local telephone networks without needing lines or a telephone service subscription; several hospitals are already doing it, and cities are being selected for company locations according to hot spot availability. Actually, WiFi popularity was largely responsible for this year's exceptional growth in computer sales, especially in laptops.
4. Global war on spam.
   Enough is enough! The huge importance of e-mail and the ever-increasing amount of unsolicited messages will force companies, governments and consumer groups to take serious action. Besides the development of truly dependable blocking technology, spam will become a major public issue, forcing governments, both nationally and internationally, to discharge their responsibilities.
   
   Outcome: Unfortunately we were quite correct. This year saw such an increase in junk e-mail that spam was selected Product of the Year, creating as it did such frustration for internauts and unnecessary expenses for their employers. This year some thirty-six states in the US (plus the federal government) and twenty-six other countries (Germany, Argentina, Australia, Austria, Belgium. Brazil, Canada, South Korea, Denmark, Spain, Finland, France, Greece, Holland, India, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Luxembourg, Norway, Portugal, the Czech Republic, the United Kingdom, Russia, Sweden, Yugoslavia) instituted legislation aimed at countering the plague. Let us hope that the legislation (Bill S-23) introduced in Ottawa will be quickly adopted and applied.
5. "Google-ization" takes form.
   After having taken control of the Internet search market, Google has extended its reach to different file formats (Word, Excel, PowerPoint, etc.), images (330 million indexed), discussion groups (more than 20 000, together with their archives), and news; the search engine's approach to the latter has created the first automated news editor. Offering access to page version stored in memory, Google even solves the problem of lost web pages. Such an application of computing power to information access has led to what can be called a "Google-ization" of our habits, meaning the tendencies to look up information on anyone who contacts us, to ensure that we have our rightful place in this new Oracle, and to follow regularly the Zeitgeist and thus stay abreast of the latest fashion and trends.
   
   Outcome: Google confirmed our prediction, and then some. The site is in the process of becoming the Microsoft of search engines, controlling as it does fifty-five percent of the search engine market, more than all the others players combined. The company maintains its leadership position by continually launching new experimental services destined to satisfy surfers as well as to break into complementary markets such as local searching, news compilation, and book searching. Finally, Google (still not listed on the stock exchange), bought out several companies, which allowed it to strengthen its dominance of the advertising placement market and carve out a substantial piece of the weblog one. One final anecdote serves to underline the site's impact: a Google search for "miserable failure" turns up the biography of George Bush on the official White House Web site!
6. Profit to the forefront.
   After years of having a free pass, Web site operators will no longer be able to justify their losses with the excuse of the innovative character of the Web or the need for time to amortize the capital invested. If 2002 was the year that confirmed a profit-making model of the Internet, then 2003 will be the year for Web site profitability. Those who ignore this will either have to be creative with their accounting or seriously question their way of functioning (if not their jobs). We may well see Web site "awards" being handed out for quantifiable results.
   
   Outcome: Our forecast held true around the world... except here in Quebec! E-commerce profits have been such that even Amazon surpassed its earlier records, and profits have become a reality for the great majority of Web sites-for example, seventy-one percent of e-commerce sites in Great Britain. This, however, doesn't seem to faze our Quebec Internet entrepreneurs; in our commissioned study by an independent firm, they indicated that profitability was not a guiding concern, with several even maintaining the impossibility of profits. We hope that the announced ending of all the various tax credits and the disappearance of the Information Highway Fund will force company directors to be more demanding of their Internet operations.
7. Recess is over for computer retailers.
   The performance of computers sold over the past three years largely surpasses most users' needs. Consumers who can afford a personal computer have already bought one; which means that 2003 may well be another stagnation year for PC retailing. We should witness a shift in manufacturers' strategy to lowering unit prices rather than adding performance capabilities. This will result in attracting customers who cannot afford the latest model computer, and will breathe new life into computer sales. And households with a wireless network will be able to install a second or even third computer.
   
   Outcome: Our prediction was dead on. "Worldwide computer sales, benefiting from a plethora of promotional offerings and from the wireless wave, enjoyed a second quarter rate of growth unseen in nearly three years" was the confirmation from industry analysts. The end of the performance race-the Pentium 4 being used in this year's machine is the same processor as last years'-meant, as predicted, a lowering (by twenty-two percent) of the average price of computers this year.
8. What about music? And Microsoft?
   As was the case last year, music labels will keep trying to stop the train that has already left the station with most of their clients aboard; while Microsoft will continue to leverage its Office and Windows monopolies to make up for its failures in most of its other areas of activity.
   
   Outcome: No comment ;-)